KANSAS CITY, Missouri ¡ª One-third of U.S. counties are facing a high risk that future water demand will outstrip supplies, spelling potential disaster for central and southern states and the crops grown there, a new study says.
Persistently parched grasslands, withering wheat and corn crops, and strained city utilities are a growing probability for fourteen states seen at extreme risk of water shortages by 2050, including Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Texas, according to the report released on Tuesday by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
In all, more than one-third of all counties in the lower 48 states are at high risk of water shortages by mid-century as climate change combines with growing population, the study found. California, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado also make the list of severely water-threatened areas.
An estimated $100 billion in crops needed for food, fuel and livestock feed grown in those areas could be threatened, according to the study. Food production and agriculture are the largest consumers of fresh water, requiring 100 times more than the amount used for daily personal needs,
"We hope this is a wake-up call," said Theo Spencer, a climate specialist with the Natural Defense Resource Council, one of the nation's largest environmental groups.
"This shows in unprecedented detail how climate change will take a serious toll on water resources in the U.S. That could put a stranglehold on agriculture and economic development," Spencer said in a phone interview.
The study examined water usage by farmers and ranchers, municipal water demand, and power generation going forward, factoring in population growth and projected changes in climate patterns, including rainfall.
The analysis, which was conducted by the Tetra Tech consulting group, compared future demand to future supply to provide an assessment of water availability.
Sandra Postel, director of the Global Water Policy Project, a water research group, said evidence has been mounting for years about diminishing water sustainability and more public policy work is needed to address the issue.
The Colorado River Basin in the western U.S. remains a particular concern amid extended drought conditions.
President Obama's proposed 2011 budget has $62 million for water sustainability projects and $11 million for a "water census" to gather data on water usage around the nation.
"Preparations need to begin in earnest," Postel told Reuters. "The climate models tell us we should begin to prepare for this. It is preparing for what sounds like an unthinkable situation but increasingly looks like an unthinkable situation that may happen."
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